60° temperatures precede the arrival of much colder air

A Very Warm Start to the Week

As anticipated, temperatures turned out to be cooler on Sunday, but still mild by late January standards. Lincoln was able to rise to 46° on Sunday afternoon, with 50s being observed in the Tri-Cities.

Sunday featured a mix of sun and clouds, and I anticipate we’ll see much of the same on Sunday night. We’ll call it a mix of “moon” and clouds for the overnight hours. Lows should bottom out in the middle-20s for most.

Remember the 60s from Saturday? We’ll likely reach the 60s again on Monday. In fact, if we can see a brief round of clearing on Monday afternoon, I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a few degrees higher than our forecast high of 60° in Lincoln.

It will be warm, dry, and breezy on Monday afternoon. In fact, the driest air will be found in central Nebraska. For that reason, a Fire Weather Watch goes into effect for the orange-shaded counties late Monday morning through the afternoon. Any fires that ignite have the potential to grow rapidly, especially in the watch region.

Winter Returns on Tuesday

A cold front arrives late Monday that will usher a colder air mass into the area starting Tuesday. As the front continues to move away from us, precipitation will develop behind the front. This results in a small chance for southeast Nebraska to see snow on Groundhog Day. However, there are still a few forecast questions – what I like to call “the fly in the ointment.”

Although the cold front passes on Monday night, our proximity to that cold front after it passes dictates whether or not we see snow on Wednesday. As things look now, the front might be far enough away where Lincoln sees nothing. The best chance for snow is to the south.

The other issue has to do with how much dry air we have in the lower atmosphere. That could prevent any snow from reaching the ground. And as it turns out, we’ll have more dry air to deal with if the front is farther removed from Nebraska.

So there are a lot of factors going against us seeing a major winter storm on Groundhog Day, let alone snow at all. It’s not totally impossible for southeast Nebraska to see something, but it doesn’t look like a major event as of now.

Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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Twitter: @mbyronwx