UNL economic report suggests Nebraska’s economy is slowing down

LINCOLN, Neb. (KLKN) — Nebraska’s leading economic indicator grew little in June, only 0.06%, according to the most recent report from UNL.

That’s the slowest since December.

“So this suggests that after growing at a solid pace so far throughout 2023, the Nebraska economy is going to slow down later this year,” UNL economics professor Eric Thompson said.

The indicator is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future. 

It considers several components, like business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts and initial claims for unemployment benefits.

“With the economy slowing, there is a risk that it could fall into recession,” Thompson said. “Or we could have slower economic growth but continue to grow.” 

He said slower growth can mean fewer opportunities for workers. 

“For the second consecutive month, we did have an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” Thompson said. 

But he said slower growth doesn’t always mean recession and there are perhaps some benefits. 

“We are in a period of higher inflation,” he said. “So perhaps one benefit of somewhat slower growth is it may help in the effort to reduce the rate of inflation.”

Three components of our economy did improve despite the overall outcome, according to the indicator. Those are business expectations, manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts. 

“The big question for me is, is this kind of a one month slowing or we going to continue to see this trend?” Thompson said.  

July’s indicator is expected to be released in the second half of August.