One more hot day; western Nebraska at risk for severe weather

As we’re rounding our way through the middle of the month, September so far has maintained above average precipitation. We’re just over 2.5″ for this month so far in Lincoln.

Summer precipitation remains above average, too. Yearly precipitation is still below average.

The end of this week will turn stormy again, with additional rainfall totals potentially adding up to 1-1.5″ over the next few days. This is likely the high end of that potential, though.

But first for Tuesday, the entire day is expected to remain dry in southeast Nebraska. There’s the smallest chance at a spot storm toward the Missouri River by the afternoon.

On the other side of the state, stronger storms will organize heading into the afternoon (~2-4PM) in northwest Nebraska with the heating of the day. Then storms blow up in coverage by the evening hours along a front across much of western Nebraska.

Storms will be in a much weaker state by the time they make it into eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning.

Stormcast shows you (in the video below) what I mean for the second part of the day Tuesday:

The leading edge could especially threaten severe weather, with a recent upgrade by the Storm Prediction Center to a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk. Probabilities are slightly higher in that area shaded in yellow below that includes North Platte, Ogallala, Imperial, McCook, Thedford and Hyannis.

An isolated tornado threat (2% chance within 25 miles of a point) extends from southwest Nebraska up toward Ainsworth in north-central Nebraska.

Large hail will be possible, especially in the yellow shaded area below. Potential hail sizes could be up to 1-1.5″ through the evening.

Damaging winds will be a threat as well, with potential gusts as high as 60-70 mph in the stronger storms.

Around and north of I-80 in western Nebraska, heavy rain is certainly possible. Models are hinting at some 2-3″ of rain for those battling such dry conditions lately.

Much of that same area is dealing with moderate to severe drought.

With more precipitation and cloud cover for the end of the week, high temperatures will cool to the 70s. This same system will stall out to give us almost daily chances at showers and thunderstorms for a while.

Morning storms look possible on game day Saturday and then again maybe on Sunday, too.

Meteorologist Jessica Blum 
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