Hazy sunshine and warmer; severe risk both Thursday morning and evening

Smoke has moved back in thanks to southerly winds and prescribed burns ongoing in the Central Plains. An air quality alert has been issued for the eastern third of Nebraska through Wednesday morning, though smoke may linger into Wednesday evening and Thursday.

Be prepared if you are sensitive to poorer air quality and pollution that the AQI may dip between the “Moderate” and “Unhealthy” category at times.

Prescribed burns in Kansas typically happen from late February through mid-April, so we’ll see if this comes to an end soon – other than smoke that would come in from wildfires.

We are in for warmer weather this Wednesday, cranking up afternoon temperatures to the lower 80s once again.

Then we’re even warmer yet by Thursday.

A couple rounds of storms will be possible Thursday morning and Thursday evening, and both rounds have a risk for severe weather. Here’s the latest version of Stormcast showing the potential for storms first across south-central Nebraska, moving into southeast Nebraska largely before sunrise (~2 a.m. to 7 a.m. window).

The evening round (about a 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. window) will have some limiting factors against it, but if we can see storms pop in central and/or eastern Nebraska during that time, storms would intensify rather quickly and would likely be severe.

Before we dive into the details, here’s a reminder for what each category and color means for the risk of severe weather:

MORNING ROUND (THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH)

As for the morning round, there is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk highlighting southeast Nebraska.

The primary threat with this morning round would be some hail and maybe some gusty winds with a storm or two.

EVENING ROUND (THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH)

The evening round will be limited by at least a couple factors:

• timing of the cold front (if it moves through quicker, storms may not form until the Missouri River or farther east into Iowa)
• the “cap” (warmer air aloft limiting storm potential unless this erodes or storms overcome it)

There is a Marginal and Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk covering central and eastern Nebraska. The second round would have stronger storms than the morning if that round can get materialize in Nebraska.

The uncertainty in what part those limiting factors play is likely what is keeping the risk for severe weather for now at a Slight risk. We’ll keep you posted if there are any changes to this.

There is a lower end risk for tornadoes across eastern Nebraska that cannot be ruled out with Thursday evening’s round.

The main hazard for the evening round will also be hail – that could be large to very large. There’s a risk for hailstones being 2″ or slightly larger from about Grand Island then areas fanning out east from there.

Gusty winds will also be possible (around 50 mph+) with these storms.

Then we’ll be much cooler Friday and Easter weekend with rain chances increasing heading toward Sunday and into next week.

It’s soooo nice to finally see several chances at moisture hopefully adding up for us through the end of April.

Meteorologist Jessica Blum 
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