Snow falls overnight and Thursday morning in southeast Nebraska

10:25 P.M. WEDNESDAY UPDATE:  I am whittling down forecast snowfall amounts based on current radar trends.  This is tightening up the gradient.  Higher amounts are still expected further south, near the Nebraska/Kansas state line.  Amounts quickly drop off as you move north.

I am currently thinking Lincoln will end up with anywhere from 0″ to as much as 2″ of snow by Thursday morning.

A moderate/heavy band of snow has developed over north central Kansas, just south of the Nebraska state line.  That band appears to not have much northward progression.  If you have plans that take you in to northern Kansas Thursday morning, expect for roads to be snow covered.  – Chief Meteorologist John Dissauer

ORIGINAL STORY – 7:44 P.M. WEDNESDAY:

Mid-level energy is passing through Nebraska and Kansas Wednesday evening producing snow to for some in the region.

Over the last several days I have been mentioning a trend in computer models, shifting the track of the storm a little further to the south, and pulling back on the available moisture to produce snow.  That trend continues from morning and afternoon data.  One computer model was extremely bearish on snow several days ago.  It was the outlier.  Turns out, it may in fact be the one that is smiling by Thursday afternoon.

It is hard to ignore the trend at this point, so I have made changes to the snow forecast around the state.  Numbers have been trimmed down.  There will likely be a large swath over the northern third of the state that gets little to no accumulation at all.

On the flip side, some of you will likely get a decent snow by 2021-2022 winter standards.  Some along the Nebraska/Kansas state line could end up with 4″ to as much as 8″ of snow.

The tricky part is what happens in between.  There will be a sharp gradient of the “haves” versus the “have nots”.  I think the gradient will be very apparent along the I-80 corridor.  Lower amounts along and north of the interstate.  Totals quickly increasing as you go south.

The good news is what falls will be all snow.  We do not have to worry about freezing rain (ice) or sleet.  This should be a relatively fluffy snow as well.  Snow to water ratios should be on the order of 14:1 to 18:1.  “Normal” snow to water ratios are around 10:1.  This means that what does accumulate should be easy to shovel, or perhaps even sweep with a broom.

Snow will be possible for the Thursday morning commute.  Snow will also be possible as we go through the morning.  Expect snow to quickly taper off (west to east) as we get close to Noon.

– Chief Meteorologist John Dissauer