Storms possible by second half of Thursday; low-end severe threat in Nebraska

Today, rain and thunderstorm chances increase across the area for the first time this week. Generally, better chances to see thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and into Thursday evening.

But there is less certainty going into this afternoon with the latest versions of Stormcast. With a front slowly trying to move in from the north, there’s questions as to how far south that front may drive thunderstorm development into our area.

But another system coming from northern Kansas may try to increase storm coverage across southeast Nebraska later this afternoon. Especially in southeast Nebraska, storms that are slower to move out will pose a risk for heavy rainfall into Thursday night.

There’s a low-end severe risk with these storms today. A large Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk tries to account for some of this uncertainty. Gusty winds, some hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly with storms along the front.

One of the more optimistic models that takes the cold front farther south shows the potential for up to 1-2″ for many in eastern Nebraska. But again, that’s leaning more on the optimistic side.

Thunderstorms expected to linger in southeast Nebraska would be efficient rain makers where there’s a “Medium” risk of excessive rainfall. Mainly localized, scattered flash floods could be possible in susceptible areas.

If this round doesn’t pan out into Thursday night, there are several more chances including Friday and the end of the weekend into early next week.

Meteorologist Jessica Blum 
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