Storms tonight, then stronger storms expected across Nebraska on Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected later Wednesday night. There is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for some isolated storms that does include Lincoln upon the latest update. It’ll be close, but the primary concern with these storms tonight is hail. Stronger winds are possible too, but storms should be borderline severe through the area highlighted below.

Latest models show storms firing a little close for comfort, nearing Lincoln between about 9 p.m. and 1o p.m. Wednesday night. These storms will be driven by the warm front pushing in from the south, with more storms possible as it continues northward late Wednesday into early Thursday.

While watching for storms along the warm front late Wednesday, we’ll deal with the strong cold front from this same system by Thursday. There’s a better chance at stronger storms as this sweeps through central and eastern Nebraska late Thursday afternoon into the evening.

This will likely bring the first snowfall to portions of the Panhandle, too, with much colder air being pulled from the north behind this system.

Thunderstorms that are able to form along the cold front look to have the right ingredients for large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. As of Wednesday evening, the latest risk for severe weather highlights much of southeast Nebraska into central Nebraska under a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk for Thursday.

Again, expect all severe weather hazards to be a possibility on Thursday. In saying that, there’s more of a chance for these storms to produce hail and heavy rain. Localize flooding could be an issue especially the further north you go, nearing the South Dakota border.

While we can’t rule out the development of a couple of tornadoes on Thursday, the best chance to see that is in central Nebraska. The area shaded in brown below, from about Grand Island to O’Neill, has the best ingredients for an isolated tornado.

It has been several days now that models have hinted at a lot of rain coming for many. The greatest probability for about 2-3″ of rain is closer to the South Dakota border, with many areas still expecting 0.5-1.5″ through this event. Totals below are through Friday night.

Expect some lingering showers on Friday, and much colder air with very strong winds to round out a dreary day. It’s possible that gusts as strong as 40-50 mph are possible on Friday, as highs struggle into the 50s.

Meteorologist Jessica Blum 
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