Wild temperature swings Tuesday along with chance for thunderstorms

Buckle up because temperatures are going to go up, then down, winds will remain gusty, and there is a threat for thunderstorms.  And that is just Tuesday.

A weather system over the southwest United States is going to send energy in to the Plains Tuesday morning.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado, eventually moving in to western South Dakota to western Kansas.  A warm front will extend ahead of the surface low.  The warm front will attempt to lift north in to Nebraska Tuesday afternoon.  South of the front, temperatures will be warm and relatively humid by late March standards.  North of the front, temperatures will remain cool in the 40°s and 50°s.

There remains some question as to how far north the front lifts Tuesday.  Some data suggests it only reaches the Kansas/Nebraska state line.  Other data takes it north of I-80.  Depending on where it ends up could mean the difference between highs in the 40°s and the 80°s, so it will have a significant impact on Tuesday’s temperatures.  It also means a big “boom or bust” forecast for southeast Nebraska.

At this time, I’m going with the warm front lifting to just north of I-80 during the late afternoon/early evening.  This means temperatures will have a late day surge in to the lower 80°s for some.

Don’t think this means temperatures will be that way all day.  It will likely be in the 40°s and 50°s by noon.  It won’t be until late afternoon when the winds shift out of the south – signifying the warm front has passed – that temperatures quickly climb.

Along with climbing temperatures winds will also be on the climb.  Expect wind gusts of 40-45 mph late afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

By late afternoon and early evening the atmosphere will be primed to produce showers and thunderstorms.  While a few passing showers will be possible as the warm front passes, thunderstorms won’t be in the mix until evening.  At this time it appears a broken line of thunderstorms could develop along and east of a line from Nebraska City to Wymore.  Once they form, they will quickly move to the east.  It is not out of the question for a few of the storms to become severe, producing high wind gusts and small hail.

Keep in mind that while I am expecting the line to form just to the east of Lincoln and Beatrice, the line could easily decide to form 30-40 miles further west.  In other words, I can’t rule out thunderstorms for either city for late afternoon and early evening.

GOING BACK DOWN

A cold front is projected to pass through southeast Nebraska early Wednesday morning.  This will bring a wind shift (turning out of the northwest) and cooler temperatures.  Temperatures will struggle to reach 50° Wednesday afternoon.  There will also be the possibility of light scattered showers through the day.

– Chief Meteorologist John Dissauer