Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.

In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

Wednesday’s cut reduced the rate to about 3.6%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years. Lower rates from the Fed can bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, though market forces can also affect those rates.

Three Fed officials dissented from the move, the most dissents in six years and a sign of deep divisions on a committee that traditionally works by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the Fed’s rate unchanged, while Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a half point cut.

December’s meeting could usher in a more contentious period for the Fed. Officials are split between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless inflation shows clear signs of coming fully under control, or unemployment worsens, those divisions will likely remain.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve will almost certainly reduce its key interest rate Wednesday, but the bigger question for financial markets and the economy is what signals Chair Jerome Powell may send regarding the central bank’s next steps.

It would be the third cut in a row and bring the Fed’s key rate to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. For Americans struggling with high borrowing costs for homes, cars, and other large purchases, this year’s rate cuts could reduce those costs over time — though it’s not guaranteed. Mortgage rates in particular are also influenced by financial markets.

This week’s meeting could presage a much cloudier path for the Fed in 2026. The government shutdown has delayed two months of jobs and inflation data, leaving the Fed with much less information on hiring and inflation than it is used to. Powell’s term as chair ends in May and President Donald Trump will nominate a replacement, possibly as soon as this month, who will almost certainly push for lower borrowing costs. Yet the new chair could face resistance from other Fed officials.

In addition to a likely rate cut, the Fed could signal that the bar for another reduction when they next meet in late January will be higher than it has been this fall. A year ago, after implementing a third rate cut at its December meeting, the Fed indicated it would likely keep rates unchanged in the coming months. It didn’t cut again until September.

“They would love to take a pass (in January), push it off to March, and just wait for a couple of more inflation reports to come in,” Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said.

The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is deeply divided between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Higher borrowing costs can slow spending and the economy and reduce price increases.

The government said last week in a delayed report that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in September, with both overall and core prices rising 2.8% from a year earlier.

The lack of economic data has contributed to the divisions. But by their January meeting, they’ll have up to three months of backlogged reports to consider. If those figures show that hiring has remained weak, or that layoffs have spiked, the Fed could reduce rates again in January.

By contrast, if they show hiring has stabilized while inflation remains elevated, they may hold off on additional cuts for several months.

On Wednesday, the Fed will also issue their quarterly set of economic projections, which include forecasts for where they will set rates at the end of this year and next. Economists expect just one rate reduction next year, as they did in September.

Yet the projections will likely carry much less weight this year, since a new chair will probably push for more reductions. And if the economy weakens, more officials will support reductions.

In an interview with Politico published Tuesday, Trump said “yes” when asked if reducing rates “immediately” was a litmus test for his new Fed chair. Trump has hinted that he will likely pick Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser.

Hassett has often called for lower borrowing costs, but this week has been more circumspect. In an interview Tuesday on CNBC, when asked how many more rate cuts he would support, Hassett did not give a specific answer and said, “What you need to do is watch the data.”